Combine the historical Trend Odds with the Equity Trend Indictor (live odds equities are trending) and the Live Trend Odds (the live odds ‘all’ the markets are trending) for the current probability today is a trend day.
Both are Peer Effects models.
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Trend Days and Rangebound Days are very difficult to forecast w/ historical data. Same for Regime shifts.
When forecasting a Trend Day/Rangebound Day for tomorrow on tonight’s close, I’m right about 52% of the time. Coin flip stuff.
Peer Effects models work better, i.e, real time forecasts are better than ones based on historical data.
Live Trend Odds and the Equity Trend Indicator are good starts on Ovation Models.