Combine the live odds equities are trending given by the Equity Trend Indictor with the live odds ‘all’ markets are trending Live Trend Odds for the current probability today is a trend day.
Both are Peer Effects models.
(Note: The Live Trend Odds webpage is currently down for an upgrade – almost finished!)
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Trend Days and Rangebound Days are very difficult to forecast w/ historical data. Same for Regime shifts.
When forecasting a Trend Day/Rangebound Day for tomorrow on tonight’s close, I’m right about 52% of the time. Coin flip stuff.
Peer Effects models work better, i.e, real time forecasts are better than ones based on historical data.
Live Trend Odds and the Equity Trend Indicator are good starts on Ovation Models.