“A good 15% of the search questions it [Google] sees every day are new – queries it has never answered before.”
<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-23866614>
If 15% new information is coming into search each day, then there should be a similar percentage of new information coming into the markets – an absolutely huge number of underlying change which implies an upper bound:
15% new history + negate 15% old history = 30% of my history bucket is new or wrong
Let’s say I get 50% of those market calls right through randomness
That leaves 15% wrong and an upper bound of 85% correct forecasts
Our market forecasts are correct 60% of the time so the ‘15% new information’ metric feels about right to me.
And means that forecasting ‘new’ and it’s 30% raw share is important.
–h