Our end of year regression forecast for SP Cash was 1119.29 which now seems reasonable to carry over into Q1 given the amount of government intervention manipulating market movements. And our 2012 GDP forecast was for 0% growth, which is supporting of a bearish bias. Still, it’s probably a good idea get another data point into Q1, this Read more about Quick Look: SP Forecast for Q1 2012[…]
GDP = C + I + G + (X – M) The change in GDP is just the change in the components. Consumption is about 70% of the equation, Investment 16%, Government 20% and Exports – Imports -4% With weigthings the equation looks like this after dropping Exports and Imports as having little effect: GDP Read more about Quick Tip: How to Build Your Own GDP Forecast[…]
Here’s a simple model for forecasting the closing price of the SP Cash based on the coincident annual change in price of the 30 year Bonds and VIX. Since the annual changes for Bonds and VIX aren’t available yet, the annual change as of 12/6 was used as a proxy. The Result? A 19% year-end Read more about Forecasting SP Closing Price for 2011[…]
In forecasting, there are two variables, the Forecaster and the Forecastee. Since it is unlikely we can or should change the behavior of the Forecastee, improvement must come from improving the Forecaster. Which seems a crystalizing, if obvious, thought, –h
How many points of slop need to be allocated to a trade to allow for deception? Or does deception just move the optimal entry price? –h Deception Part 1 is here.
All warfare is based on deception… –Sun Tzu Which adds an interesting dimension, –h
Trend Day Forecast historical results covering the past 12 months are available. Accuracy was 69% over all timeframes in the SP futures. About 2 set-ups per day, average +1.5 pts. Call or drop a note to request a copy, –h Henry Carstens 503-701-5741 carstens@verticalsolutions.com
Creativity is the degree to which you insert yourself between the numbers and the conclusions Expertise is the degreee to which you are right Learning, in both cases, is the difference in degree at time [t] and time [t-1] –h
Sometimes the most basic tests provide the biggest insights and can later be used to refine other tests. Idea: Buy or sell in the opposite direction of the day’s trade, i.e., if today was up from yesterday’s close, then go home short. If today was down, go home long. Exit at the close of the Read more about Starting at the very beginning[…]