Innovations and October P&L

Posted on November 3, 2013November 2, 2013 by hcarstens

Vertical Solutions Forecast – Innovations and October P&L A summary of innovations (Market Stress, Trend Day/Range Day forecasting) and the October and cumulative P&Ls, –h Henry Carstens Vertical Solutions cell: 503-701-5741 mail to: carstens@verticalsolutions.com www.verticalsolutions.com ———- Innovations Expect more trades that exit based on Market Stress retracements from overbought/sold back to neutral (+/-1) Expect more Read more about Innovations and October P&L[…]

Predicting Tomorrow’s Close #idea

Posted on November 2, 2013 by hcarstens

Natural Language Processing. Predicting the next word, phrase and sentence. Here is a project using the NuPic AI engine from Numenta that demonstrates. Change the inputs from words, phrases and sentences to market data and…

What’s Missing – the Error Term #idea

Posted on October 13, 2013 by hcarstens

What’s missing? [t+1] = how I forecast what comes next What’s missing is the error term – [t+1] = how I forecast what comes next + (error) The error term is what completes the performance triad: Visualize, Execute, Analyze Learning, continuous improvement and perhaps even ideas and serendipity happen faster with the explicit use and Read more about What’s Missing – the Error Term #idea[…]

New Information Rate is 15% #idea

Posted on September 20, 2013September 20, 2013 by hcarstens

“A good 15% of the search questions it [Google] sees every day are new – queries it has never answered before.” <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-23866614> If 15% new information is coming into search each day, then there should be a similar percentage of new information coming into the markets – an absolutely huge number of underlying change which Read more about New Information Rate is 15% #idea[…]

Market Stress – Post FOMC

Posted on September 18, 2013September 18, 2013 by hcarstens

Post-FOMC long term market stress. Markets with high stress levels tend to reverse but timing is hard. The main idea behind Market Stress is that in market with high stress levels, there is more risk in the current direction of the trend and more opportunity in the opposite direction. In the chart below, the stress Read more about Market Stress – Post FOMC[…]

Interest Rates 1871-2013 #idea

Posted on September 18, 2013 by hcarstens

Interest rates 1871 – 2013. 2 generations of families, businesses, corporations and governments (state, local, federal) have known nothing but falling interest rates. Rising rates where bills go up every month and credit is tighter will be a new experience…

Contingency Forecasting #idea

Posted on September 15, 2013September 15, 2013 by hcarstens

Contingency Forecasting – a way of forcing myself to think ahead. Similar to having 200 words for snow. Begets nuance and feel. –h

Labs: Market Stress Sept 13, 2013

Posted on September 14, 2013September 14, 2013 by hcarstens

Near Term Market Stress as of close Sept 13, 2013. High Stress (potential turning points) in: US, ES, Stoxx, Russell

P&L as Data Stream #idea

Posted on September 13, 2013September 12, 2013 by hcarstens

What would turning your P&L into a datafeed tell you? It would tell you how well you’ve traded on days like today. And that is fascinating. –h

Labs: Market Stress

Posted on September 11, 2013September 11, 2013 by hcarstens

The elusive and somewhat grail-like search for turning points: US, Stoxx and ES are currently under high stress – This uses relative price movements to show when the prices of a market get out of line with their peers (we got the idea here.) The gray lines measure stress. Stress is calculated as price moves relative Read more about Labs: Market Stress[…]